Metal Stocks Rally Pushes Nifty Metal to Record High as Markets Surge 369 Points

Metal Stocks Power Markets to Strong Gains Amid Trade Deal Optimism

Indian stock markets closed firmly in the green on Wednesday, October 29, 2025, with the benchmark indices posting solid gains as metal stocks led a powerful rally that pushed the Nifty Metal index to an all-time high. The Sensex climbed 368.97 points (0.44%) to settle at 84,997.13, while the Nifty 50 advanced 117.70 points (0.45%) to end above the psychologically important 26,000-mark at 26,053.90.

The market’s upward momentum was driven by a confluence of positive factors—optimism over potential progress in US-India trade negotiations, expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut, and a strong rally in commodity-linked stocks. The Nifty Metal index surged over 2%, hitting a record high of 10,824.70, marking its third consecutive session of gains with a cumulative rise of more than 4% during this period.

Market breadth turned decisively positive with 2,404 shares advancing against 1,576 declining stocks on the BSE. The broader indices also participated in the rally, with the BSE Midcap index adding 0.7% and the Smallcap index rising 0.6%, signaling healthy participation across market segments.

SAIL Steals the Show with 8% Surge Ahead of Q2 Results

Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL) emerged as the standout performer in the metal pack, with its shares soaring nearly 8% during intraday trade to touch a fresh 52-week high of ₹143.20. The state-owned steel major attracted heavy volumes, with more than 122 million shares changing hands—well above its average daily turnover—as investors positioned themselves ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings announcement scheduled for the same day.

The extraordinary interest in SAIL came despite analysts projecting a challenging quarter. Street estimates suggested an 85% decline in profit after tax to ₹136 crore from ₹897 crore year-on-year, with operating margins expected to contract to 8.04% from 11.81% in the corresponding period last year. However, investor optimism stemmed from expectations of volume growth of around 10% and the partial offset provided by lower coking coal prices, which declined by approximately $10 per tonne sequentially.

Other metal heavyweights joined the rally with gusto. Hindustan Copper jumped over 3%, while Hindustan Zinc and NMDC each gained nearly 3%. Major steel producers—Vedanta, JSW Steel, and Tata Steel—advanced over 2% each. Even Adani Enterprises, which has metal interests, contributed to the sectoral strength with a gain of nearly 3%.

The broad-based rally in metal stocks was fueled by multiple catalysts. Firstly, global investors were pricing in the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting conclusion later that day. Lower interest rates typically boost demand for non-yielding assets like metals and support industrial activity. Secondly, tight global supply-demand dynamics and firm commodity prices provided fundamental support to the sector.

NTPC and Power Stocks Lead Blue-Chip Gains

Beyond metals, the power and energy sectors contributed significantly to the day’s gains. NTPC emerged as the top gainer on the Nifty 50, rising 2.9% to close at ₹349 after the company announced that its subsidiary, NTPC Green Energy Limited, had been categorized as a Schedule A Central Public Sector Enterprise (CPSE) by the Government of India with effect from October 28, 2025.

This elevated status is a significant milestone for NTPC Green Energy, reflecting the company’s growing strategic importance in India’s renewable energy landscape and its expanding operations in solar, wind, and green hydrogen projects. The Schedule A categorization grants NTPC Green Energy enhanced operational autonomy and greater flexibility in decision-making, which is expected to facilitate faster project implementation and improved competitiveness in the renewable sector.

Power Grid Corporation followed closely with a gain of 2.43%, while Adani Ports contributed with a 2.69% rise. The oil and gas sector also outperformed, with the Nifty Oil & Gas index ending as the top sectoral gainer with a 2.12% advance, driven by optimism over easing crude prices and expectations of higher OPEC+ output.

Among other notable gainers, HCL Technologies rose 2.35%, and JSW Steel added 2.4%. The information technology sector also participated in the rally, with the Nifty IT index gaining 0.89% as investors looked forward to the Fed’s monetary policy stance.

Trade Deal Hopes and Fed Decision Keep Sentiment Buoyant

The market’s positive bias received a significant boost from US President Donald Trump’s comments at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea. Trump stated that the US is “doing a trade deal with India” and expressed great respect for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, emphasizing the strong relationship between the two leaders.

This announcement came as a relief to Indian markets, which have been grappling with the impact of steep US tariffs imposed earlier on Indian goods—up to 50% including penalties for Russian oil purchases. The prospect of a comprehensive trade agreement that could lower these punitive tariffs lifted investor sentiment across sectors, particularly in export-oriented industries.

Meanwhile, global markets remained on edge awaiting the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision scheduled for later in the evening (11:30 PM IST). According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, traders were pricing in a more than 99% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, which would lower the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. This would mark the second consecutive rate cut by the Fed, signaling the central bank’s pivot toward supporting economic growth amid moderating inflation and a softening labor market.

Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities, noted, “While the Fed is expected to cut rates by a quarter point, traders will scrutinize the accompanying statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments for signals about future cuts.” The prospect of continued monetary easing by the Fed is generally supportive of emerging market equities and commodities, as it increases global liquidity and reduces the cost of capital.

Coal India’s Disappointing Quarter Drags the Stock

While most sectors celebrated gains, Coal India stood out as one of the top losers on the Nifty 50, declining 2.16% after reporting sharply disappointing second-quarter results. The state-owned coal producer posted a 30% year-on-year decline in consolidated net profit to ₹4,354.24 crore, down from ₹6,249.10 crore in the same quarter last year. The result significantly missed analyst expectations of ₹5,544 crore, representing a shortfall of over ₹1,200 crore.

Revenue from operations also took a hit, dipping 3.2% to ₹30,186.7 crore from ₹31,181.89 crore in the year-ago period. The company’s EBITDA fell 22% to ₹6,716 crore, with margins contracting by 584 basis points to 22.25% from 28.09% in the second quarter of the previous fiscal year.

The weak performance was attributed to multiple headwinds. Coal India faced a 4% decline in production and a 2% reduction in dispatches during the quarter, reflecting weak power demand amid heavy rainfall and elevated inventory levels at thermal power plants. Additionally, e-auction premiums remained soft due to global coal price weakness, further pressuring realizations. Lower thermal generation activity across the country weighed on offtake volumes, limiting the company’s pricing power.

Analysts noted that while Coal India’s medium to long-term fundamentals remain intact, supported by structural growth in domestic power demand and ongoing efficiency measures, the near-term outlook remains cautious. The lack of short-term triggers and weak volume momentum could limit upside potential in the stock for now.

Other notable losers included Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, which fell 2.4%, Bharat Electronics (-1.44%), Eternal (-1.18%), and Mahindra & Mahindra (-1.11%). The auto sector remained under pressure for the second consecutive day, with the Nifty Auto index slipping 0.7% as stocks like Bosch, TVS Motor, and M&M faced selling pressure.

What to Watch Next

Thursday Morning (October 30, 2025): Market participants will first react to the US Federal Reserve’s policy outcome in early trade. All eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference commentary for guidance on the outlook for future rate cuts, especially in light of the ongoing US government shutdown that has delayed the release of key economic data.

Corporate Earnings Watch: Major companies including ITC, NTPC, Cipla, DLF, and Canara Bank are scheduled to announce their Q2 results on October 30, which could set the tone for sectoral performance.

Technical Levels: For the Nifty 50, the immediate resistance zone lies at 26,100-26,150. A decisive breakout above 26,150 could propel the index toward 26,350-26,500 in the short term. On the downside, crucial support is placed at 25,850-25,800. The index’s RSI has risen to 72.43, suggesting strong buying momentum, though overbought conditions are emerging.

Bank Nifty Watch: The banking index closed at 58,385, up 0.29%, breaking above the 58,200-58,300 resistance zone. Immediate resistance is now at 58,400-58,500, with a breakout potentially leading to a move toward 59,000. Support is at 58,100-58,000.

Global Cues: Asian markets and US futures will provide important directional cues. Any dovish guidance from the Fed regarding the pace and magnitude of future rate cuts could sustain foreign inflows into emerging markets, including India. Conversely, any hawkish surprises could trigger profit-booking.

Trade Deal Developments: Progress in US-India trade negotiations will remain a key catalyst. Any concrete announcements regarding tariff reductions or sectoral agreements could provide significant upside to export-oriented sectors.

Commodity Watch: Crude oil prices, metal prices, and currency movements will be closely monitored. The rupee ended marginally stronger at 88.20 per dollar, and further appreciation could benefit importers while pressuring IT exporters.

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Disclaimer: This article is only for information purposes and is not investment advice. Before investing, do your own research.