Samvat 2082 Begins on a Positive Note: Markets Eye Double-Digit Growth After Muted Year

Indian stock markets welcomed Samvat 2082 with open arms during the special Muhurat Trading session on October 21, 2025, closing marginally higher and signaling renewed optimism among investors. The Nifty 50 ended at 25,868.60, up 25.45 points or 0.10%, while the BSE Sensex gained 62.97 points or 0.07% to settle at 84,426.34. More importantly, the broader markets outperformed, with the BSE Midcap index rising 0.3% and the Smallcap index surging nearly 1%, suggesting that the market breadth remains healthy as we enter the new Hindu financial year.

Market experts are projecting a much stronger performance for Samvat 2082 compared to the muted 6% returns of Samvat 2081. With corporate earnings expected to revive, foreign institutional investors returning after months of selling, and supportive government policies kicking in, the stage appears set for double-digit growth. Banking and market expert Ajay Bagga has projected Nifty at 30,000 by next Diwali, implying a potential 16% upside from current levels, while the Sensex is expected to target 95,000.

A Historic Shift: Muhurat Trading Moves to the Afternoon

For the first time in decades, the Muhurat Trading session was held in the afternoon slot from 1:45 PM to 2:45 PM IST, breaking away from the traditional evening timing. This one-hour special session, considered highly auspicious by investors, marks the symbolic beginning of the new Samvat year. The BSE and NSE opened their trading platforms exclusively for this ceremonial window, with pre-open sessions starting from 1:30 PM and block deals happening between 1:15 PM and 1:30 PM.

The session saw active participation across all segments including equities, futures and options, commodity derivatives, and currency derivatives. Trading volumes, though lower than regular sessions, reflected strong retail investor interest, with many making token investments to mark an auspicious start to the year.

What Drove the Muhurat Session?

Top Gainers and Market Leadership

The session witnessed strong buying in select heavyweight stocks. Cipla emerged as the top gainer among Nifty stocks, followed by Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, Infosys, and Mahindra & Mahindra. These stocks provided the necessary support to keep the benchmark indices in the green despite some profit-booking in other heavyweights.

On the flip side, private banking major Kotak Mahindra Bank led the losers’ pack, along with ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Max Healthcare, and Asian Paints. The pressure on these stocks was primarily attributed to profit-booking after their recent strong run.

Sectoral Performance: Broad-Based Buying

Barring Nifty PSU Banks and Realty, all other sectoral indices finished in positive territory. Media, Metal, and Pharma sectors led the charge with gains of around 0.3% each, reflecting broad-based buying interest across the market. The Nifty Media index extended its winning streak for the second consecutive session, while the Nifty Metal index snapped a two-day losing streak.

The healthcare sector also put up a strong show, rising 0.5% and extending gains for the fifth consecutive session. This momentum in defensive sectors suggests that investors are positioning themselves carefully for the year ahead, balancing growth and safety.

Broader Market Steals the Show

While benchmark indices posted modest gains, the real action was in the broader market. The BSE Smallcap index jumped nearly 1%, outperforming both the Midcap and large-cap indices. Stocks like Mafatlal Industries surged 20%, DCB Bank gained 7.4%, and Rajratan Global Wire climbed 7.3%, reflecting strong retail investor participation in mid and small-cap stocks.

This outperformance of smaller stocks during Muhurat Trading is historically significant, as it often sets the tone for how these segments perform in the coming months.

Looking Back: Samvat 2081 Was a Year of Consolidation

Before we look ahead, it’s essential to understand what happened in Samvat 2081. The year that just concluded delivered modest returns of around 6% for both Nifty and Sensex, a stark contrast to the blockbuster double-digit gains seen in the previous two Samvats.

The Challenges That Weighed on Markets

Several headwinds dampened market performance during Samvat 2081. The single biggest factor was the sharp decline in India’s corporate earnings growth, which dropped to just 5% in FY25 from an average of 24% in the previous three years. As market veteran VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Investments pointed out, “In the long run, the market is a slave of earnings,” and this earnings slowdown directly impacted market returns.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned aggressive sellers, pulling out nearly Rs 2.39 lakh crore from Indian equities in the calendar year 2025 so far. Multiple factors contributed to this exodus, including US trade policy uncertainty under President Trump’s tariffs, stretched valuations in Indian markets, and better returns in other Asian markets, particularly China.

Additionally, global headwinds like geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainties, and elevated US interest rates kept investors on edge throughout the year.

Sectoral Divergence: Winners and Losers

Despite the overall modest returns, sectoral performance showed significant divergence. Nifty Auto emerged as the top-performing sector with 16% gains, powered by strong festive demand and robust vehicle sales. Nifty PSU Bank followed with 14% returns, while Nifty Metal gained 9%.

On the losing side, Nifty IT declined 13%, weighed down by concerns over US immigration policies affecting H-1B visas and elevated tariffs. Nifty Energy fell 10%, while Nifty Realty (-6%), FMCG (-4%), and Pharma (-2%) also ended in negative territory.

Individual stock performance was equally diverse. Bajaj Finance, Maruti Suzuki, Bharat Electronics, and InterGlobe Aviation were among the top performers, delivering returns between 45% and 55%. However, several IT majors and energy stocks saw significant declines.

Why Samvat 2082 Looks Much Brighter

After a year of consolidation, market experts are unanimous in their optimism for Samvat 2082. Multiple factors are aligning to support a stronger, more sustainable rally in Indian equities.

Earnings Revival: The Key Driver

The most important positive is the expected revival in corporate earnings. Analysts project earnings growth of 8-10% in FY26, which is expected to accelerate to around 15% in FY27. This recovery is being driven by fiscal and monetary reforms implemented over the past year, which are now showing tangible results.

Early signs of recovery are already visible. Sales of automobiles and white goods have shot up during the current festive season, suggesting that consumer demand is picking up. If this trend sustains, it will translate into stronger corporate profitability and better stock market performance.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects Nifty earnings to deliver a 12% CAGR over FY25-27, driven primarily by financials, consumption, and cyclicals. ICICI Direct has set a one-year forward Nifty target of 27,000, supported by robust consumer demand and policy reforms.

FIIs Are Making a Comeback

After months of relentless selling, foreign institutional investors are finally returning to Indian markets. In October 2025 alone, FIIs have turned net buyers, pumping in over Rs 3,000 crore in just the first few weeks. On October 20, the day before Muhurat Trading, FIIs bought shares worth Rs 790 crore, marking their continued buying streak.

This shift in FII sentiment is significant. Analysts attribute it to improving corporate earnings prospects, stabilizing macroeconomic conditions, and the realization that India’s long-term growth story remains intact despite short-term challenges. Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have been consistent buyers throughout the year, net purchasing Rs 6.03 lakh crore worth of shares, providing a strong cushion to the market.

Policy Support and Macro Tailwinds

The government’s policy initiatives are creating a supportive backdrop for growth. The Union Budget 2025-26’s announcement of zero income tax for individuals earning up to Rs 1 lakh per month is expected to boost consumption significantly. The rationalization of the GST structure under GST 2.0 will further improve corporate margins and compliance efficiency.

On the monetary front, the Reserve Bank of India has already implemented a 50 basis-point Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) cut and a 100 bps rate reduction, improving bank liquidity and lending capacity. Market participants expect at least one more rate cut before year-end, which will further ease financial conditions.

Inflation has moderated to below 3%, while the fiscal deficit remains contained. GDP growth is holding steady at around 7%, making India one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world. This combination of low inflation, healthy growth, and supportive policies creates an ideal environment for equity markets.

Valuation Comfort After a Year of Consolidation

After the muted returns in Samvat 2081, market valuations have moderated from their peaks, making stocks more attractive from a risk-reward perspective. While valuations remain above long-term averages, the upcoming earnings growth should justify current multiples and provide room for further upside.

What Should Retail Investors Watch in Samvat 2082?

As we embark on this new financial year, here are the key factors that retail investors should closely monitor:

Q2 and Q3 Earnings Season

The ongoing Q2 earnings season and the upcoming Q3 results will be critical in confirming whether the earnings revival story is playing out as expected. Watch for commentary from management on demand trends, margin improvement, and growth outlook. Sectors like banking, autos, and consumer discretionary will be particularly important to track.

FII Flow Trends

Keep an eye on whether the recent shift to net buying by FIIs sustains. Consistent foreign inflows in the coming months would provide strong validation for the bullish thesis and support higher valuations. Monthly data from NSDL and NSE will provide insights into these flows.

RBI’s Monetary Policy Decisions

The Reserve Bank’s upcoming monetary policy meetings will be crucial. Any additional rate cuts or liquidity-enhancing measures would provide further support to equity markets, particularly rate-sensitive sectors like banking, real estate, and automobiles.

Global Developments: US-India Trade Relations

Watch for developments on US-India trade negotiations. A favorable trade deal could provide a significant boost to export-oriented sectors and overall market sentiment. Conversely, any escalation in tariffs or trade tensions could weigh on sentiment, particularly for IT and pharma sectors.

Technical Levels to Track

From a technical perspective, Nifty is expected to face resistance in the 25,900-26,000 zone in the near term. Crucial support lies at 25,700, followed by 25,500. A decisive breakout above 26,000 would pave the way for a move toward the all-time high of 26,277 and potentially higher targets of 27,000 as projected by several brokerages.

For the Sensex, immediate resistance is around 85,000, with support at 83,500-84,000 levels. A breakout above the September 2024 high of 85,571 would be a strong bullish signal.

Sectoral Rotation Opportunities

Based on expert recommendations, consumption-oriented sectors (including autos and consumer discretionary), financials (especially banks and insurance), and IT are the top sectoral picks for Samvat 2082. Additionally, the electronics manufacturing services (EMS) sector and defense stocks are expected to benefit from structural themes like supply chain diversification and government support for self-reliance.

Historical Context: Muhurat Trading’s Track Record

It’s worth noting that Muhurat Trading has historically been a positive indicator for markets. Over the last 18 Muhurat sessions, 14 closed in the green, giving it a success rate of nearly 78%. More recently, all five Muhurat Trading sessions from 2020 to 2024 ended positive, with gains typically ranging between 0.4% and 0.9%.

The 2008 Muhurat session is particularly memorable, when the Sensex gained 5.86% during the global financial crisis, marking a turning point that led to a strong recovery in subsequent months. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future returns, this historical trend reflects the deep-rooted faith Indian investors have in this auspicious tradition.

Final Thoughts: A Year of Recovery and Opportunity

Samvat 2082 arrives at a crucial inflection point for Indian markets. After a year of consolidation and muted returns, multiple catalysts are aligning to support a stronger performance. The revival in corporate earnings, return of foreign investors, supportive government policies, and easing macroeconomic headwinds all point toward a favorable environment for equity investments.

However, investors should remain mindful of the risks. Global economic uncertainty, particularly around US monetary policy and trade relations, could continue to cause volatility. Valuations, while more reasonable than a year ago, still demand selectivity and a focus on quality companies with strong fundamentals.

For retail investors, the key is to stay invested with a long-term perspective, focus on fundamentally strong businesses, and maintain a diversified portfolio across sectors and market caps. The traditional “buy on dips” strategy is likely to work well in the year ahead, as any corrections could provide attractive entry opportunities.

As we light the diyas this Diwali and welcome Samvat 2082, the Indian stock market story remains compelling. With domestic consumption picking up, reforms taking root, and the long-term growth trajectory intact, this could well be the year when markets reward patient investors who stayed the course through the challenging Samvat 2081.

This article is only for information purposes and is not investment advice. Before investing, do your own research.